Serbia Votes in Parliamentary Election Seen as Test of Vucic's Hold on Power

Voters across Serbia waited in long lines outside polling stations on Sunday in a parliamentary election widely viewed as a contest between populist leader Aleksandar Vucic and a student-led movement that has protested against him for nearly two years.

Serbia's 6.4 million voters could choose among 18 parties competing for seats in the 250-member Parliament. In practice, the race has become a referendum pitting Vucic's right-wing Serbian Progressive Party against the youth-backed Students' List. The two main contenders are thought to be running neck and neck, which makes this the least predictable vote in recent years. Turnout is expected to be high, and that could leave most smaller parties under the 3% threshold needed to enter the assembly.

Ilija Srdanovic, a physician who heads the 250 candidates on the youth movement's list, said the early queues pointed to "record turnout in Serbia's recent history." After voting in Novi Sad, he said he hoped the day would pass "in a democratic atmosphere and in peace." Asked whether supporters should gather outside polling stations in the evening to guard ballots, he said the movement would offer recommendations on next steps when it presents its results. The movement's website called the lines "queues of hope." In Belgrade, Vucic waited with his wife for more than an hour to cast his ballot.

The vote is being closely watched by the European Union, since Serbia is a candidate for membership in the bloc. Recent elections in the country have been marred by irregularities. Local and international monitors have already raised concerns about the safety and fairness of the campaign, citing detentions, near-total government control of the media, and reports of surveillance and cyberattacks targeting activists. Local elections earlier this year in 10 municipalities involved violent attacks on journalists and activists, and the 2023 parliamentary vote was followed by opposition protests alleging fraud.

Vucic resigned the presidency last month to lead the campaign after serving two near-full terms. If his party wins the most votes, he would become prime minister. His party's popularity has slipped since a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in northern Serbia two years ago, killing 16 people. The disaster set off youth protests demanding accountability and justice for the victims. Protesters blamed widespread corruption and cronyism for negligence during renovation work at the Novi Sad station.

Even so, Vucic keeps considerable support. Admirers see him as a capable leader able to guide the country through global uncertainty, an image shaped by mainstream media.

The Students' List is unlike other political groups in Serbia. Although university students shaped it, none appear on the ballot. Its candidates are little-known experts, athletes, farmers and artists. The approach was meant to counter Vucic's one-man rule and rebuild a sense of community, and its "we know how" campaign message promised a non-partisan effort to restore the economy and democracy. Students, vilified by pro-government media, cycled and walked across the country to reach rural voters in areas that have traditionally backed Vucic.

Polls have produced mixed results, and both camps claim to be ahead. Some analysts worry about instability after the vote if the margin is narrow. Vucic has said his side would accept defeat, but he has also warned that any protests alleging fraud after a win by his party would be quashed immediately. The state election commission is not expected to publish an official tally before Monday.

Magda Anastasijevic, Eastern Europe analyst for the conflict monitor ACLED, said electoral violence has been rising in Serbia and could worsen, "particularly if the results are disputed."